April 2, 2008
7:10 PM EST
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Another solid pitching matchup highlights Game 2 of the Reds' season-opening series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Cincinnati is looking to even the series after an Opening Day loss Monday afternoon.
Probable Starters
ARI: RHP Dan Haren
2007 w/OAK: 15-9, 3.07 ERA
Career vs. CIN: 3 G, 2 GS, 1-1, 5.93 ERA incl. 7 IP, 6 H, 3 R in W 6/20/07
@ GABP: 2 G, 1 GS, 0-1, 8.10 ERA in 6 2/3 IP
HAREN OWNS...
HAREN IS OWNED BY...
No one for either, really. The only hitter likely to be in the lineup Wednesday with over a handful of at-bats against Haren is Corey Patterson. He's 3-8 (.375 BA) with 3 BB in 11 career PA against Haren.
Johan Santana aside, Dan Haren was the biggest prize to be had in the 2007 offseason, and getting him cost the Diamondbacks a pretty penny. A five-prospect package went to Oakland in the exchange to bring Haren to the desert. However Haren has a very favorable contract, locked in at reasonable rates for the next three seasons, years likely to be very productive barring injury (he turns 28 in September). He adds a second genuine #1 starter to an already solid rotation,
This has been discussed by the Cincinnati media and fanbase ad nauseum, but I'm not sure why the Reds didn't make a stronger push to get Haren in the offseason. Granted, we do not know, nor are we likely to ever know, what the A's were asking for from the Reds (most reports had Billy Beane hot for Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, just like the rest of baseball, which made the deal a no-go for the Reds). What's frustrating for Reds fans is that none of the prospects the Diamondbacks gave up seem to be as highly-regarded as the Reds' three, perhaps encouraging the thought that the Reds could have gotten Haren for some of their lower-level prospects instead. Given what Billy Beane wound up asking for in return for Joe Blanton (pretty much the same Cueto-Votto-Bruce-Drew Stubbs package he was rumored to be asking for Haren), this thought is likely misguided. If the organizational decision was to keep Cueto/Votto/Bruce instead of getting Haren, then the decision to hold off on Blanton (purely league average) for the same package was definitely a good one. Haren, though, isn't league-average, doesn't look to be a product of park effects, and his numbers are nearly as good as Johan's at a fraction of the cost. I would be much more gung-ho on the Reds contending this year if he were in the 2 slot, Bronson were 3, Cueto were 4, Volquez were 5 and Josh Fogg was someone else's problem.
Anyway, Haren is good, and the Reds might have some problems scoring runs Wednesday.
CIN: RHP Bronson Arroyo
2007: 9-15, 4.23 ERA
Career vs. ARI: 5 G, 3 GS, 0-2, 4.56 ERA
@ GABP: 33 GS, 12-7, 3.43 ERA
ARROYO OWNS...
2B Orlando Hudson (6-28, .214 BA, 1 2B, 3 RBI)
ARROYO IS OWNED BY...
1B Conor Jackson (4-7, .571 BA, RBI, 2 BB, 1381 OPS)
Bronson came back to Earth somewhat in 2007, struggling through a difficult campaign. He started strong but hit the wall after Narron pitched him til his arm fell off during a 3-game stretch in May (366 pitches over three starts, culminating in a 129-pitch complete game loss here at Petco May 16). Then in a stretch in June and July he went over the 100-pitch mark in nine of ten starts. The pattern of abuse ended somewhat under Mackanin, though he did throw 123 pitches against the Cubs 7/27. Hopefully Dusty recognizes that while Arroyo's motion makes him a bit more durable than some, his arm isn't completely made of rubber and with overwork, you'll get performances like 5/21 vs. Washington (2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 62 pitches after the SD start) and 8/1 at Washington (1 2/3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 58 pitches after the 9-games-in-10-over-100 stretch). The Nationals must think Bronson really sucks.
Anyway, Arroyo is a lot of fun to watch, with his giant yakker curveball (an absolute marvel to witness in person; I've never heard a reaction quite like that to a single pitch than the first time he busted that out at Petco in 2007) and otherwise-hittable looking stuff. He got considerable pub and some Cy Young hype in 2006 but the league seemed to catch up on him a little; that combined with overwork and perhaps a little more familiarity by NL hitters added up to a considerably worse season.
OFFENSIVE STRUGGLES HURT REDS IN LOSS
Cincinnati dealt with a nearly impossible-to-win situation Monday: scoring runs without runners on base. While they left more runners stranded than Arizona (5 runners to 4), none of the Reds' runners were left in scoring position, and it didn't even seem the Reds mustered a rally against Brandon Webb and the Arizona bullpen arms Chad Qualls, Tony Pena and Brandon Lyons. Indeed, as mentioned before, seemingly the only hard-hit balls were Brandon Phillips' triple to center and Javier Valentin's single off the right-field wall.
One thing that particularly struck me watching Monday's game was how many players were starting from whom you expect no power. The heart of the lineup is pretty good, with Griffey, Phillips, Dunn and Encarnacion all nice bats. Some would say Encarnacion is suspect until he puts an entire season together. You will hear no Dunn bashing around here. But Patterson doesn't strike any fear at the top, and Hatteberg and Valentin at the bottom can easily be pitched to (and in Valentin's case, if they plan on hitting him eighth, can easily be pitched around to get to the pitcher's spot).
Yes, the Reds have several injuries making their lineup different than they expected it at the start of the year, but I'm not convinced Alex Gonzales brings anything more offensively at short than Keppinger would over a full season (in fact, I suspect he'll give them less than a full year of Kep). Votto should be getting the ABs at first, regardless of Hatteberg's good spring numbers. David Ross brings a little more to the table offensively than Javy, but neither are great shakes.
I know they've only played one game, but this suspicion isn't based on Mondays' game. I'm afraid Krivsky took a team full of mashers, able to score runs at will with a horrible staff, and made a team of OK hitters and OK pitchers that will win about as many games.
HOLDING THEIR OWN
Despite Monday's loss, the Reds still have some reason for optimism in this season-opening homestand against the Western and Eastern Division champion Diamondbacks and Phillies. Last year Cincinnati played .500 baseball, 15-15 against division winners, somewhat impressive in a 70-92 season.
OH, AND ANOTHER THING...
With the win Monday Arizona evened their all-time record at Great American Ball Park. They are now 8-8 all time at GABP.
UPCOMING SCHEDULE:
4/3 Arizona 12:35
4/4 Philadelphia 7:10
4/5 Philadelphia 1:10
4/6 Philadelphia 1:15
4/7 Philadelphia 12:35
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