April 2, 2008
7:10 PM EST
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Another solid pitching matchup highlights Game 2 of the Reds' season-opening series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Cincinnati is looking to even the series after an Opening Day loss Monday afternoon.
Probable Starters
ARI: RHP Dan Haren
2007 w/OAK: 15-9, 3.07 ERA
Career vs. CIN: 3 G, 2 GS, 1-1, 5.93 ERA incl. 7 IP, 6 H, 3 R in W 6/20/07
@ GABP: 2 G, 1 GS, 0-1, 8.10 ERA in 6 2/3 IP
HAREN OWNS...
HAREN IS OWNED BY...
No one for either, really. The only hitter likely to be in the lineup Wednesday with over a handful of at-bats against Haren is Corey Patterson. He's 3-8 (.375 BA) with 3 BB in 11 career PA against Haren.
Johan Santana aside, Dan Haren was the biggest prize to be had in the 2007 offseason, and getting him cost the Diamondbacks a pretty penny. A five-prospect package went to Oakland in the exchange to bring Haren to the desert. However Haren has a very favorable contract, locked in at reasonable rates for the next three seasons, years likely to be very productive barring injury (he turns 28 in September). He adds a second genuine #1 starter to an already solid rotation,
This has been discussed by the Cincinnati media and fanbase ad nauseum, but I'm not sure why the Reds didn't make a stronger push to get Haren in the offseason. Granted, we do not know, nor are we likely to ever know, what the A's were asking for from the Reds (most reports had Billy Beane hot for Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, just like the rest of baseball, which made the deal a no-go for the Reds). What's frustrating for Reds fans is that none of the prospects the Diamondbacks gave up seem to be as highly-regarded as the Reds' three, perhaps encouraging the thought that the Reds could have gotten Haren for some of their lower-level prospects instead. Given what Billy Beane wound up asking for in return for Joe Blanton (pretty much the same Cueto-Votto-Bruce-Drew Stubbs package he was rumored to be asking for Haren), this thought is likely misguided. If the organizational decision was to keep Cueto/Votto/Bruce instead of getting Haren, then the decision to hold off on Blanton (purely league average) for the same package was definitely a good one. Haren, though, isn't league-average, doesn't look to be a product of park effects, and his numbers are nearly as good as Johan's at a fraction of the cost. I would be much more gung-ho on the Reds contending this year if he were in the 2 slot, Bronson were 3, Cueto were 4, Volquez were 5 and Josh Fogg was someone else's problem.
Anyway, Haren is good, and the Reds might have some problems scoring runs Wednesday.
CIN: RHP Bronson Arroyo
2007: 9-15, 4.23 ERA
Career vs. ARI: 5 G, 3 GS, 0-2, 4.56 ERA
@ GABP: 33 GS, 12-7, 3.43 ERA
ARROYO OWNS...
2B Orlando Hudson (6-28, .214 BA, 1 2B, 3 RBI)
ARROYO IS OWNED BY...
1B Conor Jackson (4-7, .571 BA, RBI, 2 BB, 1381 OPS)
Bronson came back to Earth somewhat in 2007, struggling through a difficult campaign. He started strong but hit the wall after Narron pitched him til his arm fell off during a 3-game stretch in May (366 pitches over three starts, culminating in a 129-pitch complete game loss here at Petco May 16). Then in a stretch in June and July he went over the 100-pitch mark in nine of ten starts. The pattern of abuse ended somewhat under Mackanin, though he did throw 123 pitches against the Cubs 7/27. Hopefully Dusty recognizes that while Arroyo's motion makes him a bit more durable than some, his arm isn't completely made of rubber and with overwork, you'll get performances like 5/21 vs. Washington (2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 62 pitches after the SD start) and 8/1 at Washington (1 2/3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 58 pitches after the 9-games-in-10-over-100 stretch). The Nationals must think Bronson really sucks.
Anyway, Arroyo is a lot of fun to watch, with his giant yakker curveball (an absolute marvel to witness in person; I've never heard a reaction quite like that to a single pitch than the first time he busted that out at Petco in 2007) and otherwise-hittable looking stuff. He got considerable pub and some Cy Young hype in 2006 but the league seemed to catch up on him a little; that combined with overwork and perhaps a little more familiarity by NL hitters added up to a considerably worse season.
OFFENSIVE STRUGGLES HURT REDS IN LOSS
Cincinnati dealt with a nearly impossible-to-win situation Monday: scoring runs without runners on base. While they left more runners stranded than Arizona (5 runners to 4), none of the Reds' runners were left in scoring position, and it didn't even seem the Reds mustered a rally against Brandon Webb and the Arizona bullpen arms Chad Qualls, Tony Pena and Brandon Lyons. Indeed, as mentioned before, seemingly the only hard-hit balls were Brandon Phillips' triple to center and Javier Valentin's single off the right-field wall.
One thing that particularly struck me watching Monday's game was how many players were starting from whom you expect no power. The heart of the lineup is pretty good, with Griffey, Phillips, Dunn and Encarnacion all nice bats. Some would say Encarnacion is suspect until he puts an entire season together. You will hear no Dunn bashing around here. But Patterson doesn't strike any fear at the top, and Hatteberg and Valentin at the bottom can easily be pitched to (and in Valentin's case, if they plan on hitting him eighth, can easily be pitched around to get to the pitcher's spot).
Yes, the Reds have several injuries making their lineup different than they expected it at the start of the year, but I'm not convinced Alex Gonzales brings anything more offensively at short than Keppinger would over a full season (in fact, I suspect he'll give them less than a full year of Kep). Votto should be getting the ABs at first, regardless of Hatteberg's good spring numbers. David Ross brings a little more to the table offensively than Javy, but neither are great shakes.
I know they've only played one game, but this suspicion isn't based on Mondays' game. I'm afraid Krivsky took a team full of mashers, able to score runs at will with a horrible staff, and made a team of OK hitters and OK pitchers that will win about as many games.
HOLDING THEIR OWN
Despite Monday's loss, the Reds still have some reason for optimism in this season-opening homestand against the Western and Eastern Division champion Diamondbacks and Phillies. Last year Cincinnati played .500 baseball, 15-15 against division winners, somewhat impressive in a 70-92 season.
OH, AND ANOTHER THING...
With the win Monday Arizona evened their all-time record at Great American Ball Park. They are now 8-8 all time at GABP.
UPCOMING SCHEDULE:
4/3 Arizona 12:35
4/4 Philadelphia 7:10
4/5 Philadelphia 1:10
4/6 Philadelphia 1:15
4/7 Philadelphia 12:35
Monday, March 31, 2008
Game 1: Diamondbacks 4, Reds 2
Of all days, Opening Day has the most importance attached to the result, with maybe the least real meaning in the long run. It's just one out of 162, but it's hard to maintain that perspective, especially with an off-day Tuesday. These days are going to happen, especially with a guy like Brandon Webb on the mound. It doesn't get any easier Wednesday with Dan Haren taking the hill. Not to hedge my bets, but it would be best to take any sweeping opinions expressed below with a considerable grain of salt...
THE GREATEST PLAYER ASHLAND EVER PRODUCED...
Webb was maybe the worst guy for an overeager team to face in the opener. With so much late movement it's got to be pretty hard to lay off some of his pitches, especially that hard sinker. Between the fastball, sinker and change pitch identification has to be nearly impossible against him. Nearly everyone had bad swings and really the only hard contact came on Phillips' triple (which, honestly, may have been a single if not for the slick grass). Everyone had swings like this, but one by Corey Patterson early on particularly stuck out: the ball started as a high breaking ball, looked like it was sinking into the zone, then zagged inside on him just as he started his swing. He never had a chance, and neither did most of the Reds today.
ON DUSTY...
Much of my perspective on Dusty so far has been heavily colored by Redszone posters, half of whom seem to love him for the wrong reasons (he's crusty, he's forthcoming with the media, he likes guys who Play the Game the Right Way) and half of whom hate him for things that happened three years ago, and veiled mean-nothing statements in Spring Training (he likes Norris Hopper, he blew out Prior's arm, he is Satan incarnate). Therefore, I'm going to try to lay off Reds chatter with the exception of pure news sources in the near future. It just seems best.
ON KEPPINGER AND THE FUTURE (a.k.a. My Doctoral Dissertation)
How lost did Keppinger look in his at-bats against Webb? The most interesting thing that will happen because of Baker is, to me, seeing his reaction to struggles by younger/less established players. Keppinger has done nothing but hit on every level of the minors. If he doesn't play well through the weekend, will it be Castro time?
GOOD CALL
With Harang sitting on 99 pitches going into the seventh, it was nice to see Dusty pull him. It's the first game and there's no reason to push it, Burton's hanger crushed by Sanchez notwithstanding. The results earned by the bullpen after Harang was pulled don't make the decision to pull him on 99 pitches in six innings a bad choice, and I believe Burton will be fine in the long run. This may be me rationalizing his rough spring and HR allowed because he was fantastic in the second half last year and the Reds really need him to pitch well, but I'm a Reds fan.
Harang, by the way, was really solid, epecially if you exclude the third, a two-homer, 32-pitch marathon that pretty much singlehandedly kept him from earning the win and lasting more than six. It was interesting seeing the contrast between Harang and Webb, with Harang getting guys with hard stuff well-placed along with breaking balls, and Webb just being all late movement. Along with playing in a nationally-invisible team like the Reds, Harang doesn't do much that gets headlines; he doesn't throw 99, he doesn't have some unhittable slider or gimmick pitch, he's just solid as hell. He's one of those guys where you're shocked if he doesn't pitch well every time out.
HOW GOOD IS HUDSON?
If you didn't watch this game, please check out the condensed game on MLB at the very least. He made plays in the field that were jaw-dropping, including a basket catch in center and a ball he nearly nailed Harang on that I can't believe he even got to in shallow center. He is fantastic and I'm tired of Orlando Hudson hyperbole (today was only Game 1 of the series, we have to save some for Wednesday and Thursday), so just check out the highlights somehow... or just trust me.
OH EDWIN...
You could see that throw in the first coming before it even left his hand. Something in his body language wasn't right the entire time he was getting that ball out of his glove and out of his throwing hand.. I don't know if he was having issues gripping a wet ball, as Grande and Welsh guessed, or if he was thinking about it too much because he had plenty of time, but that error stat they showed on the telecast was scary. Edwin was seriously jerked around by Narron, I really hope Dusty just lets him play, because he's a very good player. I'm just worried that, like Keppinger, we'll be seeing Edwin on the bench and Freel down at third come next week.
THINGS I'M GLAD ABOUT ON OPENING DAY
It's Opening Day.
George Grande's shirt in that interview with Dusty from Spring Training.
George Grande in general; he's so bad, he's aging like fine wine.
FarmersOnly.com advertisements are back.
It's Opening Day.
Cordero didn't get bombed or anything.
Weathers looked good.
Extra Innings subscription.
It's Opening Day.
161 games left.
Baseball season is back.
I can predict Marty's reaction to things, therefore basically living the Marty Experience, without even listening to Marty.
Really, there's lots of stuff, so I'll just sum it up for Reds fans everywhere by saying...
It's Opening Day.
THE GREATEST PLAYER ASHLAND EVER PRODUCED...
Webb was maybe the worst guy for an overeager team to face in the opener. With so much late movement it's got to be pretty hard to lay off some of his pitches, especially that hard sinker. Between the fastball, sinker and change pitch identification has to be nearly impossible against him. Nearly everyone had bad swings and really the only hard contact came on Phillips' triple (which, honestly, may have been a single if not for the slick grass). Everyone had swings like this, but one by Corey Patterson early on particularly stuck out: the ball started as a high breaking ball, looked like it was sinking into the zone, then zagged inside on him just as he started his swing. He never had a chance, and neither did most of the Reds today.
ON DUSTY...
Much of my perspective on Dusty so far has been heavily colored by Redszone posters, half of whom seem to love him for the wrong reasons (he's crusty, he's forthcoming with the media, he likes guys who Play the Game the Right Way) and half of whom hate him for things that happened three years ago, and veiled mean-nothing statements in Spring Training (he likes Norris Hopper, he blew out Prior's arm, he is Satan incarnate). Therefore, I'm going to try to lay off Reds chatter with the exception of pure news sources in the near future. It just seems best.
ON KEPPINGER AND THE FUTURE (a.k.a. My Doctoral Dissertation)
How lost did Keppinger look in his at-bats against Webb? The most interesting thing that will happen because of Baker is, to me, seeing his reaction to struggles by younger/less established players. Keppinger has done nothing but hit on every level of the minors. If he doesn't play well through the weekend, will it be Castro time?
GOOD CALL
With Harang sitting on 99 pitches going into the seventh, it was nice to see Dusty pull him. It's the first game and there's no reason to push it, Burton's hanger crushed by Sanchez notwithstanding. The results earned by the bullpen after Harang was pulled don't make the decision to pull him on 99 pitches in six innings a bad choice, and I believe Burton will be fine in the long run. This may be me rationalizing his rough spring and HR allowed because he was fantastic in the second half last year and the Reds really need him to pitch well, but I'm a Reds fan.
Harang, by the way, was really solid, epecially if you exclude the third, a two-homer, 32-pitch marathon that pretty much singlehandedly kept him from earning the win and lasting more than six. It was interesting seeing the contrast between Harang and Webb, with Harang getting guys with hard stuff well-placed along with breaking balls, and Webb just being all late movement. Along with playing in a nationally-invisible team like the Reds, Harang doesn't do much that gets headlines; he doesn't throw 99, he doesn't have some unhittable slider or gimmick pitch, he's just solid as hell. He's one of those guys where you're shocked if he doesn't pitch well every time out.
HOW GOOD IS HUDSON?
If you didn't watch this game, please check out the condensed game on MLB at the very least. He made plays in the field that were jaw-dropping, including a basket catch in center and a ball he nearly nailed Harang on that I can't believe he even got to in shallow center. He is fantastic and I'm tired of Orlando Hudson hyperbole (today was only Game 1 of the series, we have to save some for Wednesday and Thursday), so just check out the highlights somehow... or just trust me.
OH EDWIN...
You could see that throw in the first coming before it even left his hand. Something in his body language wasn't right the entire time he was getting that ball out of his glove and out of his throwing hand.. I don't know if he was having issues gripping a wet ball, as Grande and Welsh guessed, or if he was thinking about it too much because he had plenty of time, but that error stat they showed on the telecast was scary. Edwin was seriously jerked around by Narron, I really hope Dusty just lets him play, because he's a very good player. I'm just worried that, like Keppinger, we'll be seeing Edwin on the bench and Freel down at third come next week.
THINGS I'M GLAD ABOUT ON OPENING DAY
It's Opening Day.
George Grande's shirt in that interview with Dusty from Spring Training.
George Grande in general; he's so bad, he's aging like fine wine.
FarmersOnly.com advertisements are back.
It's Opening Day.
Cordero didn't get bombed or anything.
Weathers looked good.
Extra Innings subscription.
It's Opening Day.
161 games left.
Baseball season is back.
I can predict Marty's reaction to things, therefore basically living the Marty Experience, without even listening to Marty.
Really, there's lots of stuff, so I'll just sum it up for Reds fans everywhere by saying...
It's Opening Day.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Opening Day Lineup
The starting lineup for Opening Day, per Trent/everyone:
Patterson, CF
Keppinger, SS
Griffey, RF
Phillips, 2B
Dunn, LF
Encarnacion, 3B
Hatteberg, 1B
Valentin, C
Harang, RHP
No Votto... let the handwringing commence!
Patterson, CF
Keppinger, SS
Griffey, RF
Phillips, 2B
Dunn, LF
Encarnacion, 3B
Hatteberg, 1B
Valentin, C
Harang, RHP
No Votto... let the handwringing commence!
Game 1: Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds
March 31, 2008
2:10 PM EST
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Two of the National League's top arms face off at Great American to open the 2008 reguar season as the Reds face the Diamondbacks Monday afternoon.
Probable Starters
ARI: RHP Brandon Webb
2007: 18-10, 3.01 ERA
Career vs. CIN: 8 GS, 4-2, 2.83 ERA incl. CG SO 5/26/06 @CIN
@ GABP: 4 GS, 1-1, 2.96 ERA
WEBB OWNS...
1B Scott Hatteberg (2-11, .182 BA, 1 RBI)
RF Ken Griffey Jr. (0-9, 2 SO, 2 BB)
WEBB IS OWNED BY...
SS Alex Gonzalez (4-13, .308 BA, 2 RBI) - On the disabled list
LF Adam Dunn (6-26, .261 BA, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, .478 SLG)
In his whole career, Webb has only really been "owned" by Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe; J.T. Snow has some excellent numbers as well. No one on this Reds team seems to have done all that well against him.
The 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner turned in another stellar campaign in 2007, further solidifying his standing as one of the league's elite starters. Despite the acquisition of the rock-solid Dan Haren in the offseason, Webb again gets the nod on Opening Day for the defending NL West champions. Webb is likely to have a sizable cheering section Monday; he hails from the heart of Reds country in Ashland, KY.
Webb's spring numbers (5 GS, 8.50 ERA in 18 innings) were less than great, but Arizona is unlikely to be worried about their ace headed into the 2008 campaign.
CIN: RHP Aaron Harang
2007: 16-6, 3.73 ERA
Career vs. ARI: 6 GS, 2-2, 1.74 ERA
@ GABP: 69 GS, 24-21, 4.12 ERA
HARANG OWNS...
LF Eric Byrnes (1-10, .100 BA, 3 SO)
HARANG IS OWNED BY...
C Chris Snyder (4-5, .800 BA, 2B, RBI)
Because Arizona is such a young team, it's difficult to find hitters with many at-bats against the Reds' ace.
2007 marked the third consecutive year Reds fans have bemoaned the lack of attention paid to Aaron Harang. He's been one of the NL's most consistent workhorses and a bonafide ace since 2005, yet he just garnered his first-ever Cy Young votes last year, finishing fourth. A (hopefully) better team should garner Harang much more national attention than he's ever received before.
In contrast to Webb, Harang had an excellent spring (5 GS, 2.86 ERA in 22 innings) and looked to be in midseason form in his last tuneup. Here's hoping for a nice start to 2008 for Harang.
THE DUSTY QUESTION
Much has been made of the Reds' hiring of Dusty Baker in the offseason, both positive and negative. Progressive (smart) thinkers and youth-minded fans say he's held down young talent, pointing to Joey Votto not starting the opener, Jay Bruce's demotion in favor of Corey Patterson and Homer Bailey's demotion in favor of Josh Fogg taking the fourth rotation slot. Old-fashioned fans love Baker's new attitude and point out he's won everywhere he's been. Doubtless both sides likely have a point (sure Dusty didn't play young talent in San Francisco or Chicago... but what young talent did he have?). How Dusty's managerial style has changed, and how it will apply to this roster, is one of the most intriguing questions of the upcoming season.
THE QUESTION MARK...
Another perennial question mark for the Reds is, of course, the pitching. Harang and Bronson Arroyo anchor the rotation, but below them are three huge question marks. Rookie RHP Johnny Cueto looked dazzling in several spring starts and very much like a rookie in others. Edinson Volquez holds down the fifth spot. The acquisition from Texas should be feeling some heat coming into the season, as fan favorite Josh Hamilton waved goodbye in the process. If he gets off to a quick start in Texas (nearly a certainty barring injury) and Volquez struggles, the hook could be quick for him, and the rotation alternatives are not good. Josh Fogg is mentioned last here because he likely is the second most sure thing other than Harang in this rotation; the only issue is that he is sure to not give much (six innings, three or four runs, and out). I'm not sure if it's more frustrating for a pitcher to be kind of bad every start, or turn in one great start and one awful start alternating all year (Kyle Lohse) but we'll find out this year.
The major addition in the bullpen is Francisco Cordero. Reds brass is praying his success last year wasn't a result of pitching in Miller Park as his splits suggest, because he's only going to pitch there a handful of times this year. The theory behind getting a big-arm closer, then moving all the other arms down a spot (David Weathers to setup, Jared Burton to the 7th inning, etc.) is a solid one. The Reds blew a lot of games late last year and here's hoping it doesn't continue.
LUCKY BREAKS?
Arizona confounded numbers-minded baseball fans everywhere in winning the NL West last year, winning 90 games despite being outscored by 20 runs on the season. The D-Backs outperformed their expected W-L by 11 games in doing so, and were 32-20 in one-run games.
One could argue this was the result of doing things the right way, getting some breaks and being good at preventing runs. One could also argue the season was largely luck, and given the same talent they likely would have finished fourth. In a stacked NL West Arizona didn't stand pat, obtaining Dan Haren from Oakland for five prospects in the offseason. Regardless, it will be very interesting to see if the trends from last year continue for Arizona.
OH, AND ANOTHER THING...
2008 marks the first time in nine years the Reds have faced an NL West opponent on Opening Day. On April 5, 1999, Dusty Baker's Giants beat the Reds, 11-8.
2:10 PM EST
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Two of the National League's top arms face off at Great American to open the 2008 reguar season as the Reds face the Diamondbacks Monday afternoon.
Probable Starters
ARI: RHP Brandon Webb
2007: 18-10, 3.01 ERA
Career vs. CIN: 8 GS, 4-2, 2.83 ERA incl. CG SO 5/26/06 @CIN
@ GABP: 4 GS, 1-1, 2.96 ERA
WEBB OWNS...
1B Scott Hatteberg (2-11, .182 BA, 1 RBI)
RF Ken Griffey Jr. (0-9, 2 SO, 2 BB)
WEBB IS OWNED BY...
SS Alex Gonzalez (4-13, .308 BA, 2 RBI) - On the disabled list
LF Adam Dunn (6-26, .261 BA, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, .478 SLG)
In his whole career, Webb has only really been "owned" by Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe; J.T. Snow has some excellent numbers as well. No one on this Reds team seems to have done all that well against him.
The 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner turned in another stellar campaign in 2007, further solidifying his standing as one of the league's elite starters. Despite the acquisition of the rock-solid Dan Haren in the offseason, Webb again gets the nod on Opening Day for the defending NL West champions. Webb is likely to have a sizable cheering section Monday; he hails from the heart of Reds country in Ashland, KY.
Webb's spring numbers (5 GS, 8.50 ERA in 18 innings) were less than great, but Arizona is unlikely to be worried about their ace headed into the 2008 campaign.
CIN: RHP Aaron Harang
2007: 16-6, 3.73 ERA
Career vs. ARI: 6 GS, 2-2, 1.74 ERA
@ GABP: 69 GS, 24-21, 4.12 ERA
HARANG OWNS...
LF Eric Byrnes (1-10, .100 BA, 3 SO)
HARANG IS OWNED BY...
C Chris Snyder (4-5, .800 BA, 2B, RBI)
Because Arizona is such a young team, it's difficult to find hitters with many at-bats against the Reds' ace.
2007 marked the third consecutive year Reds fans have bemoaned the lack of attention paid to Aaron Harang. He's been one of the NL's most consistent workhorses and a bonafide ace since 2005, yet he just garnered his first-ever Cy Young votes last year, finishing fourth. A (hopefully) better team should garner Harang much more national attention than he's ever received before.
In contrast to Webb, Harang had an excellent spring (5 GS, 2.86 ERA in 22 innings) and looked to be in midseason form in his last tuneup. Here's hoping for a nice start to 2008 for Harang.
THE DUSTY QUESTION
Much has been made of the Reds' hiring of Dusty Baker in the offseason, both positive and negative. Progressive (smart) thinkers and youth-minded fans say he's held down young talent, pointing to Joey Votto not starting the opener, Jay Bruce's demotion in favor of Corey Patterson and Homer Bailey's demotion in favor of Josh Fogg taking the fourth rotation slot. Old-fashioned fans love Baker's new attitude and point out he's won everywhere he's been. Doubtless both sides likely have a point (sure Dusty didn't play young talent in San Francisco or Chicago... but what young talent did he have?). How Dusty's managerial style has changed, and how it will apply to this roster, is one of the most intriguing questions of the upcoming season.
THE QUESTION MARK...
Another perennial question mark for the Reds is, of course, the pitching. Harang and Bronson Arroyo anchor the rotation, but below them are three huge question marks. Rookie RHP Johnny Cueto looked dazzling in several spring starts and very much like a rookie in others. Edinson Volquez holds down the fifth spot. The acquisition from Texas should be feeling some heat coming into the season, as fan favorite Josh Hamilton waved goodbye in the process. If he gets off to a quick start in Texas (nearly a certainty barring injury) and Volquez struggles, the hook could be quick for him, and the rotation alternatives are not good. Josh Fogg is mentioned last here because he likely is the second most sure thing other than Harang in this rotation; the only issue is that he is sure to not give much (six innings, three or four runs, and out). I'm not sure if it's more frustrating for a pitcher to be kind of bad every start, or turn in one great start and one awful start alternating all year (Kyle Lohse) but we'll find out this year.
The major addition in the bullpen is Francisco Cordero. Reds brass is praying his success last year wasn't a result of pitching in Miller Park as his splits suggest, because he's only going to pitch there a handful of times this year. The theory behind getting a big-arm closer, then moving all the other arms down a spot (David Weathers to setup, Jared Burton to the 7th inning, etc.) is a solid one. The Reds blew a lot of games late last year and here's hoping it doesn't continue.
LUCKY BREAKS?
Arizona confounded numbers-minded baseball fans everywhere in winning the NL West last year, winning 90 games despite being outscored by 20 runs on the season. The D-Backs outperformed their expected W-L by 11 games in doing so, and were 32-20 in one-run games.
One could argue this was the result of doing things the right way, getting some breaks and being good at preventing runs. One could also argue the season was largely luck, and given the same talent they likely would have finished fourth. In a stacked NL West Arizona didn't stand pat, obtaining Dan Haren from Oakland for five prospects in the offseason. Regardless, it will be very interesting to see if the trends from last year continue for Arizona.
OH, AND ANOTHER THING...
2008 marks the first time in nine years the Reds have faced an NL West opponent on Opening Day. On April 5, 1999, Dusty Baker's Giants beat the Reds, 11-8.
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