March 31, 2008
2:10 PM EST
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Two of the National League's top arms face off at Great American to open the 2008 reguar season as the Reds face the Diamondbacks Monday afternoon.
Probable Starters
ARI: RHP Brandon Webb
2007: 18-10, 3.01 ERA
Career vs. CIN: 8 GS, 4-2, 2.83 ERA incl. CG SO 5/26/06 @CIN
@ GABP: 4 GS, 1-1, 2.96 ERA
WEBB OWNS...
1B Scott Hatteberg (2-11, .182 BA, 1 RBI)
RF Ken Griffey Jr. (0-9, 2 SO, 2 BB)
WEBB IS OWNED BY...
SS Alex Gonzalez (4-13, .308 BA, 2 RBI) - On the disabled list
LF Adam Dunn (6-26, .261 BA, 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, .478 SLG)
In his whole career, Webb has only really been "owned" by Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe; J.T. Snow has some excellent numbers as well. No one on this Reds team seems to have done all that well against him.
The 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner turned in another stellar campaign in 2007, further solidifying his standing as one of the league's elite starters. Despite the acquisition of the rock-solid Dan Haren in the offseason, Webb again gets the nod on Opening Day for the defending NL West champions. Webb is likely to have a sizable cheering section Monday; he hails from the heart of Reds country in Ashland, KY.
Webb's spring numbers (5 GS, 8.50 ERA in 18 innings) were less than great, but Arizona is unlikely to be worried about their ace headed into the 2008 campaign.
CIN: RHP Aaron Harang
2007: 16-6, 3.73 ERA
Career vs. ARI: 6 GS, 2-2, 1.74 ERA
@ GABP: 69 GS, 24-21, 4.12 ERA
HARANG OWNS...
LF Eric Byrnes (1-10, .100 BA, 3 SO)
HARANG IS OWNED BY...
C Chris Snyder (4-5, .800 BA, 2B, RBI)
Because Arizona is such a young team, it's difficult to find hitters with many at-bats against the Reds' ace.
2007 marked the third consecutive year Reds fans have bemoaned the lack of attention paid to Aaron Harang. He's been one of the NL's most consistent workhorses and a bonafide ace since 2005, yet he just garnered his first-ever Cy Young votes last year, finishing fourth. A (hopefully) better team should garner Harang much more national attention than he's ever received before.
In contrast to Webb, Harang had an excellent spring (5 GS, 2.86 ERA in 22 innings) and looked to be in midseason form in his last tuneup. Here's hoping for a nice start to 2008 for Harang.
THE DUSTY QUESTION
Much has been made of the Reds' hiring of Dusty Baker in the offseason, both positive and negative. Progressive (smart) thinkers and youth-minded fans say he's held down young talent, pointing to Joey Votto not starting the opener, Jay Bruce's demotion in favor of Corey Patterson and Homer Bailey's demotion in favor of Josh Fogg taking the fourth rotation slot. Old-fashioned fans love Baker's new attitude and point out he's won everywhere he's been. Doubtless both sides likely have a point (sure Dusty didn't play young talent in San Francisco or Chicago... but what young talent did he have?). How Dusty's managerial style has changed, and how it will apply to this roster, is one of the most intriguing questions of the upcoming season.
THE QUESTION MARK...
Another perennial question mark for the Reds is, of course, the pitching. Harang and Bronson Arroyo anchor the rotation, but below them are three huge question marks. Rookie RHP Johnny Cueto looked dazzling in several spring starts and very much like a rookie in others. Edinson Volquez holds down the fifth spot. The acquisition from Texas should be feeling some heat coming into the season, as fan favorite Josh Hamilton waved goodbye in the process. If he gets off to a quick start in Texas (nearly a certainty barring injury) and Volquez struggles, the hook could be quick for him, and the rotation alternatives are not good. Josh Fogg is mentioned last here because he likely is the second most sure thing other than Harang in this rotation; the only issue is that he is sure to not give much (six innings, three or four runs, and out). I'm not sure if it's more frustrating for a pitcher to be kind of bad every start, or turn in one great start and one awful start alternating all year (Kyle Lohse) but we'll find out this year.
The major addition in the bullpen is Francisco Cordero. Reds brass is praying his success last year wasn't a result of pitching in Miller Park as his splits suggest, because he's only going to pitch there a handful of times this year. The theory behind getting a big-arm closer, then moving all the other arms down a spot (David Weathers to setup, Jared Burton to the 7th inning, etc.) is a solid one. The Reds blew a lot of games late last year and here's hoping it doesn't continue.
LUCKY BREAKS?
Arizona confounded numbers-minded baseball fans everywhere in winning the NL West last year, winning 90 games despite being outscored by 20 runs on the season. The D-Backs outperformed their expected W-L by 11 games in doing so, and were 32-20 in one-run games.
One could argue this was the result of doing things the right way, getting some breaks and being good at preventing runs. One could also argue the season was largely luck, and given the same talent they likely would have finished fourth. In a stacked NL West Arizona didn't stand pat, obtaining Dan Haren from Oakland for five prospects in the offseason. Regardless, it will be very interesting to see if the trends from last year continue for Arizona.
OH, AND ANOTHER THING...
2008 marks the first time in nine years the Reds have faced an NL West opponent on Opening Day. On April 5, 1999, Dusty Baker's Giants beat the Reds, 11-8.
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