Friday, June 20, 2008

The Season is Slow and Painful, and My Friend, the Deck is Stacked

So coming off the completion of the season series with Los Angeles (for the record, seven of LA's thirty-four wins this year have come against the Reds), a 7-4 loss where the Reds fought like hungry trout after an early deficit but came up short, the Cincinnastians roll into Yankee Stadium to face the hot-as-balls New York nine. What do we know about the Red Rovers as they come over to the eassyde?

- Jay Hoops isn't completely the Balls... yet. He's been slumping after his initial angelic play (see boss MS Paint work in previous entries for evidence) and the ninth inning timeout incident seemed like as good a welcome to the seedy underbelly of The Show as he's likely to receive. Big Dust should have gotten himself run as well for that one, it was ridiculous. Apparently, young man, you only get time if blue grants time, so sit y'ass down, son. Hoops' average is down to like .320 or something (that's SABRmetric talk, we crunch the numbers like no other) and people aren't throwing it in the wheelhouse anymore. He'll adjust, but it'd be nice if Dust didn't already have him cemented into the top three spots in the order. How many times can you bang on that talking point before it gets boring, though? At this point Dusty's lineups sucking should just be an assumed truth, like the laws of gravity or the poor economy or something.

- This is an offensively poor club overall. That's just a fact. You can't explain poor hitting away by saying the other pitcher was on his game every single day. Once a week, you can use the "other pitcher was on his game" excuse. Beyond that, if you aren't scoring at least a couple on a consistent basis, you're just a bad offense. The Dodgers came into this series with some scary numbers from their pitching staff, and other than a brief flareup late yesterday the Reds still couldn't do anything. They're just bad. Shortstop is an offensive zero, as is catcher. Edwin has been struggling. Brandon is feast or famine. The outfield spot that isn't Dunn or Bruce has been a disaster all year. It seems management's main concern coming into the offseason this year was the pitching, but as "meh" as the pitching has been, it's been the inability to hit "meh" opposing pitchers that's doomed the Reds to a 33-41 record.

With the way the Yankees have been playing lately, this is going to be a tough series this weekend no matter what. Beyond that, three-game series at Toronto and the underachieving Indians shouldn't be a reason to squirm particularly vigorously. But wait, this is a team full of free-swingers (Dunn and Bruce excluded) and any unfamiliar arm looks like Cy Young against the Reds. On top of that issue, they have to use a DH in an American League park, and that's probably going to put Corey Patterson in the lineup at least three or four of these games (and knowing Dusty, only three or four games is a best-case scenario).

- More interesting things will happen behind closed doors in the next month than anything that happens on the field. Pretty much every year since 2001 (with the exception of 2002 and 2006) the Reds have been out of the race at this point in the year, and 2008 is no exception. They've gone from just a couple below .500 to being 12.5 out of first in the last week and a half, no surprise from looking at the June schedule. Milwaukee has distanced themselves from the pack and it's going to be the Reds, Houston and the Buccos in a three-way dance for fourth down the stretch. Every year except the two mentioned above, the Reds have been mentioned as major sellers in the trade market. 2003's fire sale obviously hasn't produced a winner, Harang nonwithstanding. Other years the deadline came and went without anything earthshaking happening.

Will this year be different? Walt Jocketty may be jonesing to do something to put his mark on the team. He's already come out and said the only untouchables are Greato, Volquez, Votto, Hoops and Edwin. The names left contain some crumbs (who's going to trade for Bako?) and some possibly-movable pieces (Affeldt could probably help someone in a middle relief role). Or will something happen to impact the team beyond 2008? Will someone take Cordero's three years left on his deal and give the Legs some tasty morsels? Can the Reds get something for Dunn that's better than the draft picks? Is Dunn even part of their long-term plan? Is there a long-term plan?

Every Reds-related report in the national media has them as major sellers, but they have a "win-now" mini-Steinbrenner owner. Will he let Jocketty shape the team as he sees fit? Then you have to consider that Jocketty has never really had to do a fire sale. Does this organization have the eye for talent they'll need to get a return on their investment?

T'will be verrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry interesting, homie. Now that's worth talking about.

The three-game set with the Highlanders opens tonight at 7:05, 4:05 here in the Land of In-N-Out. Edinson Volquez gets the ball against Mike Mussina. Volquez should be fired up to pitch in Yankee Stadium and make his mark on the world. Mussina is a veteran the Reds haven't seen that much who knows how to pitch, so I'm predicting a 3-1 Yankee win, with Volquez leaving tied and the bullpen getting the loss. But what do I know? I don't even like baseball.

Peace!!!

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